Projected changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Lake Urmia basin in Iran

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract This study investigates the future changes in precipitation extreme indices Lake Urmia Basin during period 2021–2100 compared to base (1987–2016), based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Trend analysis was performed using Mann–Kendall test and Sen's estimator. The output of these models downscaled by Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator method for representative concentration pathway (RCPs) 4.5 8.5. A model averaging technique employed create an ensemble model. results showed that average basin will decrease end 21st century. projection also consecutive dry day's index increases both scenarios. However, other (maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day very wet days, simple daily intensity index, wet-day precipitation) are reduced period. Moreover, slope significant trends RCP8.5 is greater more severe than RCP4.5.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Water and Climate Change

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2040-2244', '2408-9354']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.447